F-35 Lightening-II. Photo Credit: Lockheed MartinNovember 19, 2011, (Sawf News) - The US has indicated on several occasions now that it would be willing to sell the F-35 stealth fighter to the IAF, without making the sales pitch official in order not to embarrass India.
Going by the Indian press, the US feelers haven't evoked the serious thought that the offer deserves.
I believe there are many reasons why the IAF needs to consider the US offer, but I will delve on just one for now, which I believe is the most important.
Acquisition of F-35s will give the IAF a punitive strike capability against Pak that the nation has always dreamed of.
Understanding What is on Offer
This doc can help the uninitiated understand why the F-35 easily outclasses conventional fighter aircraft.
The document is actually an incisive and objective comparison of the US F-22 Raptor and the F-35 Lightening 2, but it effectively illustrates how stealth puts the F-35 in a completely different class as compared to conventional fighters.
It is true, India has committed to develop and acquire a bespoke version of the Sukhoi T-50, the PMF, for use in the IAF. India also has plans to develop the AMCA. However, both these projects are like birds in the bush, with the later possibly a bird in a bush in a mirage!
The F-35 is reality, admittedly a reality that evokes mixed emotions in the US. What we tend to forget is that the only reason the reality of the F-35 is questioned in the US is because the country has the F-22 Raptor! The rest of the world doesn't.
It will take over a decade for the PMF to attain the maturity of a Raptor as it exists today.
T-50 timelines projected by Russia are ambitious, to say the least. Russia is dependent on Indian funding to develop the T-50 and projecting an ambitious timeline is way of ensuring the funding is not jeopardized.
Almost all Russian arms projects funded by India have been characterized by massive cost escalation and delay. There is no reason to assume the PMF will be any different. HAL's participation in the project, considering its own record, can only add to those delays.
I don't believe the first HAL produced PMF will fly in this decade, let alone enter squadron service.
Relations with Pakistan
US willingness to sell the Lightening II to India must be looked at in the context of the serious possibility that the recent thaw in Indo-Pak relations could easily be reversed, something that has happened in the past.
Indeed, Pak Army could be backing the thaw only to eliminate the chance of US intervention to send it back to barracks. Once the US withdraws from Afghanistan, Pak Army could change tack, with the freeing of the terror infrastructure created to counter the Americans for use agains India. This is something the Indian Army has warned the government about.
It is hard to imagine a durable solution to the Kashmir problem and long lasting peace between India and Pakistan, without the Pak Army being sent back to the barracks and a democratic civilian leadership firmly entrenched at the helm.
F-35 Lightening-II. Photo Credit: Lockheed MartinWithout US intervention, the only way the Pak Army can be sent back to the barracks is if a Pakistan COAS does a Gorbachev. How likely is that?
Till that happens, the chances of Pakistan's terror network being unleashed against India once again are high.
Deterrent of a Punitive Strike
As things stand, India's best hope for deterring a repeat of Mumbai, or something worst, is a credible punitive strike option. A surgical strike, that humiliates Pak military leadership, just like the Abottabad raid to eliminate Bin Laden.
By acquiring a 2-3 squadrons of F-35 Lightening – II the IAF would acquire a credible punitive strike capability.
IAF F-35s could surgically strike targets in Pakistan without sustaining any losses, with devastating accuracy and no collateral damage.
Such punitive strikes on terror infrastructure targets could be readily acknowledged as one time retaliation, giving Pakistan no reason to escalate.
Stealth vs Cold Start as Terror Deterrent
Punitive strike by IAF stealth aircraft is a safer, cheaper and more effective counter to Pak proxy war than a Cold Start strategy.
Such strkies cannot be interpreted as a threat to Pakistan's existence, so it cannot be used to threaten nuclear escalation. With the cold start strategy, it becomes easier for Pakistan to up the ante.
I believe, just this reason is good enough for India to look at the US offer seriously. There are, of course, many more.
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